G. Elliot Morris, for Strength in Numbers, breaks down the shift towards Democrat in the 2025 governor election compared to the 2024 presidential election.
Note the pronounced shift away from Republicans among the groups that powered Trump’s 2024. Non‑white, lower-income, and young voters all shifted toward Democrats at above-average rates. GOP vote margin fell by over 40 points among Asian American voters, 25 points among Hispanic/Latino voters, and 26 points among 18–29‑year‑olds. White voters moved only five points, underscoring that most of the swing came from the very constituencies some analysts claimed were “realigning” right last year. The gender gap persisted but both halves moved left: men by 17 points and women by 29
I think we’re getting a pattern in these swings.
